Aaron Foyer
Director, Research
Ocean temperatures in the Pacific are running hotter than they've been in decades, and this El Niño is on pace to be the strongest one ever recorded, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By July, key Pacific waters were already 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, and NOAA now puts the odds above 90% that this turns into a very strong event by winter. Scientists say there's now roughly a two-in-three chance this beats every El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950.
This year’s El Niño is also building faster than the famous 1997-98 event, which is the one most people still remember for its extreme weather. In other words, if this forecast holds, 2026 could edge out the biggest El Niños on record.
How will a Super El Niño affect me?
When the Pacific heats up like this, weather patterns shift worldwide.
This year's event has already been tied to extreme heat in Peru, damaging storms in Chile, and more heat waves globally. It's also changed storm activity, driving more typhoons in Asia while keeping the Atlantic hurricane season unusually calm.
In past strong El Niño years, this kind of pattern has also meant drought risk in places like Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavier rain across the southern US, which can swing crop harvests for staples like wheat, soy, and palm oil.
The El Niño could hit energy markets: Hotter oceans don't just mean strange weather, they also move energy markets.
Less rain in South America during strong El Niño years has historically cut hydropower output in places like Brazil, pushing utilities to burn more natural gas instead. A quiet hurricane season is good news for US Gulf Coast gas and LNG exports, since fewer storms mean fewer shutdowns.
And a milder winter, which is common in El Niño years, could ease heating demand even as summer heat waves already push up air conditioning use.
What is Niño 3.4?
Niño 3.4 is the specific patch of Pacific Ocean that scientists watch to officially declare an El Niño or La Niña. It was picked as the go-to zone because it best captures how the whole Pacific is behaving, not just one small area.
When temperatures there stay unusually warm for six months or more, that's the official trigger for calling an El Niño.