Aaron Foyer
Director, Research
Aaron Foyer
Director, Research

Europe's coal dependence is no longer widespread, it is concentrated in a handful of countries that now represent the last major strongholds of coal power on the continent.
Coal built modern Europe, firing the furnaces of the Industrial Revolution, powering two World Wars, and keeping the lights on through most of the 20th century. At its peak, coal accounted for the majority of electricity generation across the continent.
But coal lost its place as the largest source of electricity generation at the start of the new millennium, and has now been overtaken by wind, hydro, nuclear and gas power. The shift away has been dramatic: Coal generation across Europe has plummeted by more than 55% in just 10 years, and wind and solar now produce nearly 50% more electricity than coal.
The holdouts
Using data from Ember’s European Electricity Review 2025 with Orennia analysis. European coal use is highly concentrated in a few countries. Poland, Germany and the Western Balkans are the last meaningful holdouts on the continent.
Poland's official phase-out date sits at 2049, though economics could force the pace faster than policy. The eastern European nation plans to phase out 8 gigawatts of coal plants by 2030.
The Balkans are a different story, being outside the EU's carbon market, still exploring Chinese financing for new coal plants, with no binding phase-out commitments in place.
The forces at work
The EU's Emissions Trading System made coal progressively more expensive to burn. Carbon prices surged from around €5–10 per tonne in the late 2010s to a peak above €100 in early 2023, before settling at €74 today.
Meanwhile, renewable costs collapsed, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated the transition by making energy security and domestic clean generation existential priorities rather than abstract policy goals. Between 2019 and 2024, fossil fuels in the EU fell from 39% of the electricity mix to 29%, while renewables grew from 34% to 47%. The lowest fossil fuel share in at least 40 years.
What comes next?
The energy transition continues. Fifteen European countries already operate without coal in their power systems, and five more generate less than 3% of their electricity from coal and are moving rapidly toward zero. For most of Western Europe, the coal chapter is effectively closed.
The remaining question is how the Balkan holdouts navigate a transition that the EU largely funded through carbon revenues, green subsidies and cohesion funds.
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