Data source: Orennia Ion_AI Power Generation Dashboard
As the 2024 US presidential race nears its end, the energy landscape in key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—has become a focal point in discussions about the future of energy policy and economic growth.
Despite the headlines, which have been dominated by the growth of renewables for years, the seven states that will determine the next American president rely primarily on natural gas. Natural gas accounts for ~49% of power generation across the seven battleground states. That’s up from 17% back in 2005.
State overview:
- Arizona, solar dominance. As one of the sunniest states in the country, Arizona has seen solar energy emerge. The state’s grid is now increasingly powered by photovoltaic installations, which accounts for 12% of its power generation.
- Georgia, solar growth meets natural gas. In Georgia, solar energy is growing rapidly, particularly in rural areas, yet natural gas continues to dominate the electricity mix. The state has embraced solar energy development, and utility companies like Georgia Power are expanding their renewable portfolios. Still, over a third of Georgia’s power generation comes from natural gas. Following the Vogtle 3 and 4 nuclear reactors coming online, nuclear accounts for another third of generation.
- Michigan, wind and gas transition. Once heavily reliant on coal, the state is now moving towards a combination of wind and natural gas. Wind power is surging, primarily from large-scale projects across rural counties. And natural gas is filling the gaps from coal plants being decommissioned.
- Nevada, geothermal and solar growth. Nevada has long been a leader in geothermal energy, but solar power is now the state’s fastest-growing energy source. Solar now accounts for 30% of the state’s power generation. Nevada is also benefiting from a renewed interest in geothermal, particularly next-gen geothermal companies like Fervo.
- North Carolina, solar surge. The state is a national leader in solar energy, particularly in the eastern part of the state, where flat lands have made large-scale solar farms feasible. Solar now accounts for over 10% of the state’s electricity generation. Like Georgia, natural gas remains a significant power source.
- Pennsylvania, gas dominance. Pennsylvania, the battleground state with the most presidential electoral votes remains one of the country’s top producers of natural gas, driven by the Marcellus Shale. While coal has declined, natural gas now powers over half of the state’s electricity.
- Wisconsin, coal and gas still key. Of the seven swing states, Wisconsin produces the highest share of its electricity from coal and gas. Of the emerging renewables, wind in particular has grown, while coal, once a staple of the state’s electricity mix, continues to decline.
Aaron Foyer is Vice President, Research and Analytics at Orennia. Prior to Orennia, he leveraged his technical background in management consulting and finance roles. He has experience across the energy landscape including clean hydrogen, renewables, biofuels, oil and gas, petrochemicals and carbon capture.
